Friday, 4 May 2018

YouTube and Me - One in a Billion



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YouTube and Me - One in a Billion
---
 37:30
Transcript

in this talk we're going to learn about
a person's journey through YouTube it's
called YouTube and me one-in-a-billion
you'll see that it's recorded 2nd of May
so what you're going to expect from me
Mike downs is a set of slides I've been
working on in the last month never
really know enquire ously whether
they're going to go to the public eye
but here we are and this is youtube and
this is the public so when we're talking
about this word of me what I really mean
and I'm defining this quite honestly for
myself and that is the beauty of me is
you or me the one person or account the
user on their journey through YouTube to
use that platform as a creator and a
viewer you can also see at the bottom
the document was started on the 31st of
March I'm trying to be accurate of
what's on screen and not throw anything
else in because this talk is about
people time and the future I personally
started looking at the top part here on
YouTube about 8 years ago now if a
person was or is 13 now they're only 5
and if you look at this typical
demographic of a YouTube viewer you'll
see that the 13 to 17 is quite small but
in eight years time these people could
be 21 and moving through the system and
YouTube is a thing which has such an
incredible amount of I don't know
hearsay hype opinions in it so I've
tried to be very and I think it's this
is the next slide and we just see
something yeah I've tried to be very
sober rational and scientific in this
approach so if you look and this is a
quick summary for everyone's benefit to
make sense and that is at the end of
last year you had this Logan pool thing
going on you had huge changes with this
four key for k1k thing in January and
I'm not going to look at all of the
parts of the slide because you can go
and look at them again but you can see
that after these priorities and the
preventing harm thing with YouTube
we've got Robert Kinsel here am chief of
business at YouTube being wheeled out to
do a few talks and in the timeline that
we're talking I take a deep sigh there
is because of course the YouTube San
Bruno saw a violent attack on it which
was just at the start of April Robert
Kim saw here was did as a couple of
things after that in the sort of mid to
late April there's another update in an
April and here and I'm going to say that
we're today more or less on the 2nd of
May so what I'm trying to get at in this
slide is that if you look at where we
are right now at the start of May
there's already huge things coming out
not included in this talk but I'll say
out loud is Susan CIO has just said that
there's 1.8 billion
YouTube users and so what you're about
to see in this talk if I can keep it
very level about the facts that I've
found out and how I wish to be
challenged on them you might find that
some of them are really interesting you
might want to know more about them or
Quanah so you might be a person who goes
oh what i knew that but the thing is is
we're going to find out keeping it
moving along is that with YouTube in the
center here it can be a place where you
really want to put your head in your
hands and say you know as Ron Gogh did
old man in sorrow
you know you get fed up with it equally
if you go on that journey and you're
happy you got Emily here from metric
who's putting her arms up and saying yes
you know I've achieved it so this is a
slide that you're going to keep seeing
in this talk and the reason you are is
because there are some questions that
are being raised one of the the first
one of the three questions I'm raising
is talking about monetization and
advertising revenue this is still an
introduction part the talk by the way so
in other words if we're saying what and
this might be meeting list at the moment
but I will expand and show on screen my
rationale what view ranking would you be
if you just been accepted as a YouTube
partner program meeting the monetization
benchmark of 4,000 watch minutes and
1000 subscribers what view ranking would
you be if you were trying to make a
living on a UK minimum wage or what view
ranking would you be if you were a
full-time paid YouTube creator on a UK
average wave wage the thing is that you
look at this and you rightly say I don't
know what what are you talking about and
that's why
quite honestly I built a load of slides
into it so at the end of this talk
you're going to appreciate
there are 1.5 billion YouTube account
holders now at the moment news just in
news flash
that's gone up to 1.8 billion that's
fine but you know we'll talk about
numbers here number 2 it's possible to
rank many of these YouTube users by
subscriber rank and view rank number 3
to monetize your channel you will need
to be view ranked about three and a half
million I will expand and show you where
I got that number next one to earn a UK
minimum wage you could be view ranked
about fifty thousand on the planet on ad
revenue alone again I will expand it in
a moment next one to earn a UK average
wage you may be view ranked about 20,000
by ad revenue alone please challenge me
on these numbers I will expand them in a
moment
if you have one view you know in other
words you upload a video and you get a
view you could be ranked view ranked at
about twenty two point three millionth
in the world therefore you're in the top
1.5 percent by views I accept that you
don't know what I'm talking about and
this is meaningless as a slice let's
move on one slide here one idea that I
want to be challenged on or we can
challenge each other is if you make
which I've just said one video then you
are already in the top 3% of the YouTube
worldwide platform as about 97% of the
1.5 billion have not uploaded even one
public video
that is something to think on and that's
why it is static on the screen here
without any fancy graphics let's have a
look getting to be more ambiguous should
we say which you have you know kind of
just like expanding on the same idea if
a channel has one view is ranked well
I'm going to skip the acts of course or
said that have an eye does this mean
that 98.5 percent of the YouTube users
worldwide who are logged in have never
uploaded or made a video public at
YouTube this is a big deal because if
you're talking about a platform which
I'm about to expand on so that was an
introduction again step back think
YouTube is a platform that sits on
planet earth in the words of Duran Duran
you're looking at planet Earth I'm not
even going to do the bop bop forgetting
YouTube for a moment but focusing very
closely on the world population it's
about more or less about seven point six
billion you can see at the bottom here
that I've got some updated things the
Internet users on this planet are about
3.8 billion and I've put the zeroes in
here because you are I sit right over
here on the right hand side is one
person seven point six billion is a big
number compared to you or I or the
people we know world seven point six
Internet users 3.8 billion YouTube users
1.5 billion for the purpose of this talk
what I'm trying to get to here is that
YouTube of course is a big platform if
50 percent of the world population is
connected to the Internet 40 of those
connected are YouTube users trying to
get an idea to figure out what is
happening in the world because we're
drilling down onto things like this
using live internet stats or whatever
it's called there's a reference thing at
the end of the slide show we can see
that by 2016 which could you could argue
two years ago
they're ranked by the internet users
here you can see on screen the one I
want to highlight here without wasting
people's time on slides is that in the
last year alone India have had an
increase of a hundred and eight million
users if you take that Robert Kinsel
talk he said the one in India that a
hundred and thirty five YouTube creators
are now listed with over 1 million subs
I would argue it's more like 250
compared to only 2 last year it shows
that the world white platform is growing
so how can we get down to a level where
we can start making sense and
rationalizing that well we can use a
website called social blade where I've
gone along and I've thought about the
number one channel in the whole world
and also how that relates all the way
down to the channel or the group of
channels that are about 1.5 billion
ranking using video views not
subscribers is something I'm looking at
what you see on the top right of the
screen is my own public social blade
screen user screen if you like at this
time of made 108 yeah 865 videos I've
got nearly a million views I am ranked
at one point six million in the world in
actual fact when I had a relook at this
slide I've just increased nearly twenty
thousand what you'll notice is that
really I can skip the slide because this
is a more close-up slide of the one that
I've just had what we can do is start to
think about your own channel at the
bottom it says go to social blade and
visit your own channel and see your own
view rank because views are the things
that you might get paid on views in my
mind are far far more important than
subscribers that's my opinion
sweet sorrow is this thing an oxymoron
by Shakespeare saying that the sweetness
is to say Wow Wow well I am 1.6 million
thin the world is that a good thing or
is that a bad thing well you might say
1.6 million to have 1.6 million above me
that's terrible but if you think that
there are one point four nine eight
billion people below me in terms of
views then I'm really near the top I
mean that is a it's quite difficult
numbers the numbers are so so big
let's keep moving and let's say that
with me personally I'm looking at a new
project or 500 feet pictures but I have
a really really huge dilemma because
what I do about making this public on a
youtube channel because quite honestly
the bar means that here is my new
channel on screen it's called 500 feet
pictures I have made a channel at the
moment it's got two subscribers probably
me and a friend it's got zero watch
hours zero views because there's zero
videos but to reach this benchmark I
need a thousand subscribers 4000 watch
outs are more or less in my calculation
about two hundred thousand views before
I can even be considered on the YouTube
Partner Program so what do I do
on the right hand side you see my
existing channel already has nearly two
thousand subscribers not a lot but it
nearly has 1 million views which is a
million views more than this channel as
a dilemma here and this is why I'm
making this talk to try and highlight it
to other people if we're going to look
at some visualization
then if a channel has one view and it is
VAT ranked at 22 millionth it's in the
top 1.5 how can we make sense of it how
can we visualize it please at the bottom
it says check my maths check my
reasoning is this data fair and
reasonable based on something like
social blade if we trust social blade
I started to think about this because in
terms of my training I am a teacher you
know small children so what I would do
is I would go away and I could say right
you've got these huge huge numbers how
can you make sense of them if we said
and I need to look at the scale here I
wanted to build a simple scale model to
represent one a million and a billion
users something that people could
understand I chose a person who is 1.5
meters high if you think and I've also
put the tape measure at the side here
this is a visualization that the 1.5
meters equals the 1.5 billion users 1
centimeter which you know is probably
the width of your thumb or your one of
your fingers represents in this model 10
million users a millimeter which is what
the the depth or the thinness or the
thickness of your actual fingernail is 1
million users but what you see that if
we're going back to this 20 2.3 million
is that the width of these two sharpies
actually means that this 22 millimeters
represents the 20 2.3 million users at
YouTube who have actually made a video
or got more than one view what I'm
trying to get out here is that the pink
line at the bottom is the whole of
YouTube but you're talking about a very
very skinny thin distance for the people
or the percentage of the people 1.5 who
have actually made videos in the first
place so you could conclude conclude
that all of these people down here are
watches or people who use the platform
purely to watch something I wanted to
visualize it again to say look using a
scale that if one millimeter was a user
over the whole of the world horizontally
then one millimeter per user would equal
50
thousand kilometers which is the 1.5
billion you can look at this and you can
say okay you know what does this mean is
it useful to me it might be useful to
some people watching this slide it might
not be but you can see all the people
who make videos are actually in this dot
thing here into the length of that I
wanted to keep going keep looking at the
different angles of this literally
because the world isn't flat its round
and if you use that same scale to
visualize some big big numbers with one
millimeter you can actually stretch that
to 15,000 kilometers over the world from
top to bottom or left to right but the
important thing is that the YouTube
users who actually make videos is
represented in this tiny tiny tiny
little yellow band which is absolutely
nothing compared to the size of the
total users again if it works for you
great if it doesn't it doesn't I will do
another slide remember I'm focusing part
of this talk on young YouTube users
coming through who wish to think about
the platform in general and get some
education on it so if I said in this
scale model that one millimeter equals
or / user / 21.1 km/h Heathrow Airport
get on a bike and literally cycle for 90
minutes across London and you'll see all
of them but remember as your wheel turns
each user is only a millimeter thick
just trying to get an idea of how many
people there are in the YouTube platform
okay look we have got to a level where
we're just taking a step back if you're
still you know with some of this and
looking at my rationale my slides or my
ideas we need to say look YouTube has
got a huge huge user base what other
groups are out there that we could case
study about wishing to think about
anything to do with numbers and big
groups well
if you wanted to take something quite
popular in the world if you like the 265
million people play football if you
think that this data was in July 2007
you've got 265 million people who have
an interest or play football in 2018 the
World Cup is coming to Russia there are
32 teams of 23 players that means about
736 players which means doing the math
of 2.6 5 billion who play football for
fun that represents a very very small
number as one in every 360,000 people
who play football might end up in the
World Cup the reason I'm making the
slide is to say if you start doing
something you like what is your
expectation of getting very good or at a
very high level of it a visualization
here in terms of education away I would
say imagine this this is Wembley Stadium
it's in London there are 90,000 people
in the crowd or in that stadium right
now but there's only 22 of them who will
eventually be kicking the football
around as players on that pitch that
represents point zero two percent of the
amount of people in that stadium the
reason I'm making it is this if we go on
and we say that we want to have a go at
YouTube how could we compare that to
something else and the reason I've used
this is weekly leisure time if you went
out to play this football three hours
say on a Tuesday night you had a bit of
practice you wanted to top that up with
some gym work that's three that's six
hours of your time and then you played
the football match in the traveling or
messing around so on the Saturday you've
just spent 10 hours of your time doing a
leisure activity how much time could be
spent on YouTube as a creator every
single week 10 hours in many ways is
just to give away I think quite honestly
people are watching TV that's sky rhotic
and you know watching screens and stuff
for leisure is about what 25 hours a
week I don't know that's a guess you
know from
the research that I did what I'm trying
to get to is the travel that we have
through this platform in terms of single
single people what you'll find here is
we've got a chap here young ladies a
teenager and here's a busker and he is
starting to do something that he's
passionate about you'll notice that he's
got ginger hair he's got a guitar and
he's got his guitar box open and he's
hoping for a little bit of money in
there this chap here carried on and
carried on once a few years back he got
in your you know clue eros that cause
it's on screen that Ed Sheeran Eirias
look in a some Pancras railway station
before he was famous on YouTube as well
playing his guitar and then eventually
he ends up in Wembley Stadium on his
solo concert playing so what I'm trying
to get to is that anyone can do this but
not everyone can do it
because they need a bit of luck or they
need a bit of talent or they need to be
seen but what I'm saying is that for
that one person who wants to try then
there are examples out there not a lot
but there are examples we can take
another one here with Jessie J she here
she is look in her bedroom in 2009
playing a song that's at the moment had
about 9.2 million
nothing big deal about it she sat there
obviously a gazillion times talented
more than me and she's having a song and
a sing and youtube mama knows best
the reason I've used it is because she's
also I don't think it's her solo concept
she's in there and she does extremely
well and she's in front of 80,000 people
then weirdly but brilliantly is she only
in the last couple of weeks she drops
off the radar but appears again in China
start singing and wins their equivalent
of x-factor what I'm trying to say here
is how YouTube can be a platform for you
or I or anybody else who wants to try
something we've got to understand the
individual journeys before we start
understanding how we feel about those
whether we are hands in the air we have
done it or we are trying abyssal
our heart out but we're upset or we're a
bit down with it and we've got our head
in her hands you know I'm not gonna lie
I've been going for like you know many
many years now and you know I'd love to
have had a gazillion bits more views and
success than I had but it's not about me
it's about the story that I'm telling so
if you want to do your work and this is
the bar where we get back on it so it's
coffee break over if you like how do we
know anything about the YouTube users
without this website and this is the
best one I've come across socialblade we
really wouldn't know we really really
wouldn't know not a lot we'd be guessing
a lot and that is that if you look at
social blade you can search for any user
you can have a look at the top 50 100
500 YouTube channels bottom left down
here and after watch the mouse pointer
thing is that on the bottom left there
is a YouTube money calculator and we can
start to do some work and that work is a
little bit weird really because you're
talking about guesses and I want to iron
out those guesses this is another
example of hell with my channel you can
see that I'm 1.6 million you know I've
looked at your own channel already said
that this one I've highlighted just one
tiny thing you can look at similar
channels to yourself you can sort them
by subscribers or you can sort them by
video views if you look at mine in the
right hand column sorry the left hand
column by subscribers they are all about
1925 or so but you can see that the
views vary hugely similarly on the right
we've got 949 thousand views but on the
left the subscribers go up and down
there's somebody here with the same
amount of views similar to me but
they've only got 123 subscribers there's
someone down here with three thousand
subscribers what I'm trying to get at is
a picture a broad picture of how data
starts to work so if we used a brief
method of using your own personal
YouTube analytics your own sorry public
example of social blade maybe
the top 500 youtubers we could use the
YouTube money calculator and then use
simple math and logic we could start
ranking these 1.5 billion users from 1
all the way down to 1.5 billion more or
less and draw some conclusions so the
easy part is going to social blade and
if we at the top here sort by video
views we very clearly get who is at the
number one spot all the way down to who
is at the number 500th spot that is very
very easy but as I said we're not
dealing with 500 we are dealing with
millions and billions so I went away and
this is why it's taken a bit of time and
started looking around not with anything
complicated but with straightforward
common-sense and I came up with
something like this in other words we
start off with view ranks with somebody
at the very very top who we know has got
35 billion views and they are view
ranked as number one we can easily go
down and start ranking them up to about
496 500 then going on who I kind of like
know already and what guesses I've made
and what you know looks I've done this
of course is up to about 40 different
cells here 40 different rows view
ranking from number 1 all the way down
to this odd one down here where
somebody's subscribed to my channel not
saying who they are who has got 5 views
I've used social blade and I found they
are ranked as 21 sorry 22 point 1 4 7
millionth somebody down here with 0
views is supposedly ranked at twenty two
point three million twenty two point
eight you get the idea
notice it's not to scale because if I
start off with you rank one and I go
down to view rank twenty two point eight
million then I would need 23 million
rows and I haven't done that look it
says at the bottom check this for
yourself because these are just my
guesses I am Mike downs who has gone to
a computer and had a little look and
that is where I've started this was
slide 5 by the way
where I started to view rank these
things and I've said what is the
accepted benchmark to monetize your
channel in terms of view ranking
let's quite honestly you know make a
hand-written
payoff to what I've got so far please
please please check this for yourself
top right these notes are made using a
CPM cost per mile from my own channel
then calculating similar calculations
for others and I'm literally got my
hands in the air my hands raised to you
saying there are huge huge errors but if
I am 10 or 20 percent out we are talking
millions or thousands they'll not the
hair's width so is this a decent rule of
thumb number one you've got the top top
channel in the world but from my
calculations I have calculated that if
you are ranked view ranked at about
20,000 in the world you may be earning a
UK average wave wave there excuse me a
UK average wage that is about 27,000 UK
work it out for American or whatever
your your numbers are I wanted to get a
feeling if you are making a UK minimum
wage at these numbers you are more or
less ranked at about 50,000 in the world
to get monetized I would say again big
big general rule of thumb you could be
considered to be view ranked at about
3.5 million to be monetized based on
about 550 views a day more or less about
200,000 a year this all vary hugely
creator to create a depending on your
content your advertising your place
located in the world many many factors
but I'm trying to look at a decent rule
of thumb once again this could make you
feel wonderful because you're earning
say full-time or average wages or it
might make you feel terrible because
quite honestly you're not even man
attire
and you think you never ever can be that
is why I wanted to get some of this
thinking out into the open and have a
discussion about it or to see because
those people who are considering this
right now could be 13 years of age and
if they're going to put a couple of
years into it I would write out rightly
sort of give some advice to say you know
do your due diligence and find these
things out an observation on this slide
many top youtubers have a higher sub
rank subscriber rank than view rank what
that actually means in my way in a
general way is that people sub maybe to
say it's very cool or very useful to
them
but they don't actually watch that
channel if you like you can look down on
this these two nameless examples and say
that this person here has got three
point five millionth view rank but
they've got a subscriber rank
substantially higher than 3.5 million in
other words six hundred and fifty four
thousand this very popular creator here
is four hundred and ninety six view rank
but their subscriber Inc is two three
four so in a statistical world and
that's why this little seesaw is on the
left hand side is to say that for every
example I can give you where the view
rank is lower than the sub rank the
opposite must be true because in a
balance statistic what everything irons
out so I could show you a ton if I find
them of subscribers that are really
really really high sorry I forgot a low
number yes so let's say the subscriber
rank was either ten millionth but their
view rank was incredibly high so keep
this moving along to popular YouTube
creators this is a pure observation I'm
sure they won't mind it's public
information which one is to frank home
which one is Casey the answer here you
can clearly see on the side here is Phil
and Casey meaning that Phil DeFranco
site has a subscriber rank of 444 and a
view rank of 447 that's extremely
balanced where if you look at the Casey
channel they have got a well he's got a
502 view rank but he's subscriber rank
is half that at two to five
again maybe he bangs out you know this
idea of getting nine million subscribers
or more and 2.1 billion maybe this one
up here's got 2.2 billion views but less
subscribers of course six million is six
million more than me my point is look at
the data and to be into a position where
if you wish to get paid then is the
YouTube Partner something for you as
they I'm not a Google employee I'm not a
YouTube employee I'm just a guy I'm a
former teacher who happens to have a
YouTube channel so hey this might be one
person's opinions but I wanted to be
remember very sober and very rational
because if we are talking about dollars
being sent to your bank account then
this is a very very tentative reckoning
and I do not like talking about money in
public or even generally because I'm an
educator I deal in pure pure information
this is very much an applied example the
slide you're looking at covers over the
name and the details of this creator but
what I can say in this example is that
using the general social blade user
profile we can see that there is 1500 to
23,000 UK pounds a year we must use a
second example and to put that user
number or name into the YouTube social
blade money calculator addresses on the
bottom of the screen figure out how many
daily views use a CPM to come up with an
idea my summary here is this particular
nameless channel is doing income revenue
of about eighteen thousand dollars
thirteen thousand UK pounds please bear
in mind the little graphic on the Left
where we've got a person who's a new
creator if this person was the sole
person who owned and run filmed and
uploaded and everything to this channel
they in theory would keep the revenue
but if this person was a co-creator with
one or two people maybe a head a camera
operator may be a business operator
maybe you know an editor
they must split that revenue so if you
want to make parts on money or full-time
money you've really got to think of how
your business model works and of course
for advertisers
is very troublesome with that said when
I say troublesome I mean it can go up
and down and all sorts of different
things with with views we're nearly at
the end here so look the creator blog
comes up with certain things and once
again that's why I've said check for
yourself
and this is the thing that before I get
into the the details and I know your
eyes are reading already even if this is
true what do you care about these
incredible people who are earning like
half a million dollars or million
dollars a year because you know if it's
not you or me then why should we care
and that the only conclusion I can say
is that forewarned is forearmed meaning
that if YouTube creator blog comes out
with a statement that says over the last
year channels earning 5 figures annually
grew more than 35 percent while channels
earning six figures annually grew more
than 40 percent while we're proud of
this progress I know we have more work
to do that's all well and good because I
do trust that if you know big people are
making ton of money then it will filter
down and the smaller people will get
some eventually but in my rationale if
you look at the statement of what six
figures are then that must be by
mathematical definition from a hundred
thousand to 999 they grew 40% doing a
lot of work I believe that there are or
or view ranks for those people who are
doing this sort of money there are about
a thousand to ten thousand people in the
world doing this at the moment of our
view rank if the people are earning
between $10,000 and should we say nine
to say a hundred thousand dollars I
reckon the view rank that you're looking
out between about ten thousand to two
hundred thousand so I'm trying to get a
feeling of in this 1.5 billion people
what are the numbers talking about
because this number down here where we
say therefore earning over five hundred
thousand dollars or over a million
dollars I reckon through my estimations
am I looking my calculations there are
about seven hundred people in the world
earning more than five hundred thousand
three hundred people or accounts earning
more than a million on ad revenue alone
this is hugely
hugely off please please please top
center check this for yourself feedback
to me leave a comment because it's a big
deal with a big platform but if you look
at it and you think where am i where can
I measure myself with the world well if
you've never started then you might have
in your head in your hands already if
you are delusions you might be shouting
in the air but you might be lucky there
are people who have done a million
subscribers or a million views within
record time but there are other people
who haven't and if you're on your own
you know sat at home or sat wherever you
are do know what you're doing think
about being level I don't want to
discourage and I don't want to inspire I
just want to be level and I want to be
neutral that was it folks this is a talk
given to me with a lot of references
there are some of the references here if
you want something this talking already
then by all means leave a comment get
hold of me
this was youtuber me one-in-a-billion by
YouTube Mike downs recorded more or less
on the 2nd of May 2018 and oh yes let's
go back to look at what you've just seen
because I'm finishing this up number two
that do that's what you've seen so far
you've been here hopefully and learnt
something about this in a very general
way about the journey of one person
through YouTube my next series on this
will be YouTube and maybe it won't be
one in a billion it will be simply
called the video which will look at the
ways videos are made the types of video
we've got and quite honestly when we
look at all of those things considered
in YouTube it's about sharing videos and
about people and I will call it and I've
got this written down here that I think
YouTube is a human and machine
popularity platform but I hope it's more
than that and I hope that I can continue
to make videos that will help people
learn thank you very much ..

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